Lords of Death Forums Lords of Death Forums LoD General Discussion Anyone else following housing bubble crash?

Dunno if anyone else is watching this trainwreck.
If you haven't bought a place, but are thinking about it...wait 18 to 24 months. Then you can get a sweeeet deal.
2006 - 336 Billion dollars worth of ARMs will begin adjusting (including IO's and Neg Ams'). Market will grind down a few %.
2007 - 1.3 Trillion dollars worth will begin adjusting. 2.5 to 4 million properties will be adjusting, world of fucking hurt! Market will take a shit.
San Diego is diving hard, Pheonix is toast already. 82% of last years paper in California was ARM's (new motto, "the no doc state"). If you have any pheonix speculative property, you already are sweating profusely. OC teetering, Bay area teetering, SacTown over the hump and starting to slide. Inland Empire over the hump and sliding.
If you are on an ARM or are nuts on an IO or other exotic, I'll say "sorry to hear it" now incase I don't get a chance to when you lose your house.
Quick bucks to be had shorting CTX <img src="/~stretch/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" /> 7 mil cash, billions in liability and nobodys gonna buy their shit next year.
Good money to be made in 07 & 08. Too many people thought of their houses as ATM machines. Wonder if you can haul granite countertops to the pawn shop.

I just pulled out of a REIT fund with a decent profit...I expect it to collapse pretty soon

He had to though. If you look at GDP without refi, HELOC's and such shit since 01, you'll see that actually the GDP has been basically zero.
This past 5 years of "economy" was fueled by the bubble, HELOC's and shit. Now the decision is inflation or deflation on a fed level. There is no inbetween now.
No matter what, China will own approx 20% of the USA (they bought up the no-docs and a lot of conforming stuff. That is the current estimate, that will put the USA into a position where foriegners will own 40% of the USA.
Damn country sold it's soul for granite countertops, Escalades and big TV's. Very sad.
Yup, been 10 years overall, but 5 years of it were on speedfreak mode.

can i see some examples of how those markets are diving? i just read something completely opposite. i know the "bubble burst" theory is popular (even though the mere specualation makes people fucking nuts -- almost like a run on banks), and i understand the effect of interest only loans...but i just don't see it the same way.

i understand, i was asking for evidence that the above referenced markets are in a state of "decline".

from cnn money (now i know where this post comes from -- a recent "study"):
phoenix hardly looks catastrophic (%'s = growth)
median home 2006 2007
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ $238,100 2.00% -3.70%
let's face it, it may/may not burst -- one thing is for sure...economists don't know shit.

"economists don't know shit. "
Indeed.

Here's a couple of areas to keep an eye on it.
An insider's blog on the situation:
http://anotherfuckedborrower.blogspot.com/
Another good daily scrape:
Ben Jones is very informative
And then the hard numbers:
Zip Reality is great to gauge your area
Inventories # positions:
housing tracker
Some general purpose news on it:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2005/12/18/real_estate_slump_chills_flippers/?page=full
http://www.sacbee.com/content/business/projects/boom/story/13993878p-14827231c.html
I can post more if interested in the subject.
If I had a neg am, IO, or arm i can't finance when it floats I would flog it now, under everyone else in the neighbourhood (try to catch a 1031 exchanger). Then I would rent for 1 to 2 years. Keep the coins in the piggy bank. As the foreclosures
bleed red everywhere, snap the same property up for a 25%
discount, all the while banking cash to get a good downpayment. Then go fixed 30, or 10 yr fixed term APR if
not able to do the 30 fixed.
I dropped 30% down cash on my house and went 30 yr fixed 24 months ago. My neighbourhood is bleeding pools, jacuzzis, ATV's, mercedes etc.... all bought with the home ATM. Granted
most folks don't have a 30% down (I wanted low payments
plus no PMI, yet utilize Shed A mort deduction. That strategy costs a few bucks though and is not available to most people).
This xmas, the most popular lawn decoration is a For Sale sign.
I can take a 45% to 50% hit on value and still not be upside down, and with a fixed 30 I don't care anyway.

Pheonix went up 55% in 12 months. Inventories are up dramatically (200% ish) in the last 60 to 90 days. Developers are offering big incentives to move product. Condos which do not have dirt being pushed yet are cancelled.
40% of the industry in Pheonix is building and selling houses. They don't make anything in Pheonix, their industry is building houses and selling them to each other.
Taken from Cali Assoc of Realtors: "California households, with a median household income of $53,840, are $70,480 short of the $124,320 qualifying income needed to purchase a median-priced home at $530,430 in California, according to the California Association of REALTORS? (C.A.R.)"
I'm not a physist or a nuclear engineer, but that is not "lets skip the twice a month movie to cover the mortgage" type of situation.
Here is a Fox quote (since that other was CNN, must maintain balance!)
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,178752,00.html
Hell, may as well quote a CNN too:
http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/15/real_estate/4questions_cashout_fortune_122605/
Anyway, we can always compare notes in Sept 07 to see what was right (since there is no exact science to predicting markets). We simply try to read tea leaves.
It's a good subject though to get differing points. And it deals with big bucks, so that adds something.

If you look at the yeild curve you know whats coming. And with the inversions last week it is locked, loaded, on target and accelerating.
The sheep will be toasted in the fields.