Lords of Death Forums Lords of Death Forums LoD General Discussion Anyone else following housing bubble crash?

I bought a condo in south orange couty 3 years ago, last October. My neighbor just put his exactly same model up for sale for 170% of what I paid.
It hasnt burst here yet. But it is emminent.

I sold my house in OC for almost 300%. It's worth as much as someone is willing to pay for it.

ya your right, however i think this only happens in California right now. And when people sell there they move to nice places like Wa or ID buy a house that cost 1 mill in cali for 300k in Idaho and live off the remainder of the money. Its been happening for years. Idaho has a kind of state wide joke. Californians go home and leave your daughters here. Most only last one winter then move to AZ. I dont see how anyone could afford a house in Cali. Unless you make 200+k per year. And i know noone here does. Sept Roby

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1220stretched20.html
The crunch is there, it's not the flashy disasterous headlines yet. When the big headlines are there, it will be too late to do anything.

100% agree....
The housing market is not going to "Bubble" pop like the tech rally, but some people WILL get their asses handed to them in a serious wave...
i saw a lot of posts in this thread so i will weigh in on everything in this post...

This right here will be the cause for the housing market. People are hopping into these loans as they are very cheap and require little to no money down. They get a new appraisal on their house (which has gone up since they bought it), purchase these loans (which drop their monthly CAPX a ton), and pull out the cash and buy shitty goods with it.....
The problem is, noone bothers to check the intererst rate cap on these loans when the resets come into effect....
HOUSING SCENARIO
Here is what happens...i will use myself as a model (all hypothetical of course).
5 years ago i buy a house for $200k...using a 30yr fixed loan my monthly payment is $1000....
Today i refinance the house with an appraised value of $250k and refinance using a 5.5% ARM for that full amount. This effectively drops my payment to $600 a month due to the lower interest....I pull out $50k and buy a SUV instead of investing it...
5 years go by, interest rates have risen 3%, and now my reset rate is 8.5% interest, THUS increasing my monthly mortgage payments to $1500 a month.....Now i am totally fucked since i cant make my monthly payments as it is out of my budget, i now am a FORCED seller into a SHITTY housing market cause everyone else made the same mistake i did and there are more sellers than buyers....i now am forced to sell my house for $225k, WHILE i have a loan value of $250k....i now have to go to my bank and finance a personal loan backed by my 5 year old depreciated hummer at 10.5% interest, THUS focing myself to move into an appartment to rent....
This here ladies and gentlemen in the huge issue...people have COMPLETELY over extended themselves. They sacrificed for the present to only hope to survive the downturn....
SO HOW DO I AVOID THE BUBBLE
Buy good "dirt" value....tune in tonight and i will explain further
INVERTED YIELD CURVE
This is a ARMAGGEDON signal in the market. This is saying that investors are buying up longer dated bonds (which are supposed to be risker) than short term bonds....this means, people are foreseeing HORRIBLE economic scenarios in the future......13/16 times the yield curve has inverted, there has been a US recession within 6 months....
REITS - Real Estate Investment Trusts
These are publicly traded real estate investments...These are companies that are set up as public companies (buy them on the stock exchange like a common stock) that invest in real estate properties...in other words, an easy way for common folk to invest in institutional quality real estate investments...
REITs carry high dividend payments, so with the rising rates of the fixed income world (remember, if rates go up, bonds do shitty), people have been flocking to anything with a high dividend....Prior to the REIT craze over the past few years, the TOTAL REIT market was valued under $5 billion US Dollars...THIS SECTOR HAS GONE UP STRICTLY DUE TO INVESTORS PUSHING MONEY INTO THE SECTOR.....
If and when the real estate market pops, this sector will plummet like a rock....
Again, i can explain more tonight....

The saying goes, that once everyone and anyone is investing and doing it (day trading in the 90s for example) the market has gone over the peak...
Tune into HomeTV...there is a show called "Flip That House"(sic)
Now you tell me....has the housing market capitulated...

All of my friends in San Francisco (3 of them, 2 hedge fund traders, and 1 european analyst) have all sold their houses and moved into rental properties....

3 bedroom 2 bath
1250ish sq/ft
starting price 638k
sold for 728k .... last month
but I'm in the bay area. Over the past 6 months before I got my place, I was outbid so many times by increments of 20k totalling 60k heh on one house.

from bloomberg: "Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- In the U.S. bond market, the housing bubble has burst. "
link to story

you havent even begun to see the start of it...this is the tip of the iceberg