There's a long list of rulers out there in the world that, in a fair and just world, would not be in power. Kin Jong Il (current North Korean leader if you don't know) is just one of them. There are many shit hole countries all over the world (mainly in Africa) with leaders that starve and/or kill their own people for however long they stay in power. Hell - pick your atrocity and you can find it somewhere in the world.
The U.S. is, inherently, a selfish country. We only want to get involved when it is somehow deemed to be in our best interest by the powers that be. Maybe it's in our best interests because the atrocities are so reckless and obvious that it becomes obvious that we have to do
something about the situation (eg - Bosnia) - in other words, we are motivated because to do nothing would simply be too damned embarassing. Maybe it's in our best intersts because somebody has really pissed us off and we are going to go kill that son-of-a-bitch and whoever might be helping him (Osama & Afghanistan). Maybe it's in our best interests because there is oil there and, by God, it's our right to have access to that oil and damnit we are going to make sure we have access to that oil (Iraq).
With Korea, it may be that eventually we end up in a war there (again) because it's the only way to eliminate a possible nuclear threat. Left in power, the North Korean government will eventually develop a reliable platform for delivery of nuclear weapons. It's just a matter of time and resources (like farming purples in WoW) - if you spend the time and resources, eventually you'll get there.
But don't underestimate your enemy. Most in the west view Kim Jong Il as an irrational and erratic maniac. Kim Jong Il is the son of his father Kim Il Sung. Kim Il Sung was the Lenin and Mao of North Korea all rolled up into one. When Kim Il Sung died, there was a real question about whether or not his son could successfully rise to power. Check out this article on Kim Jong Il's
consolidation of North Korean leadership. His moves are not the moves of an irrational maniac - they are the moves of an extremely adroit and intelligent manipulator.
Okay, so the guy succeeds his father and manages to consolidate power. He's a maniac, but he's an intelligent maniac capable of getting what he wants. How long is this guy going to be around? Check out this article from Global Security regarding
Kim Jong Il's life expectancy and you will find that this guy may well be around the next 15 or so years.
This is the problem. He has the power and he has the time and he rules North Korea with an iron fist. He's going to spend the next 15 years of his life doing two things primarily. He's going to continue developing a nuclear program that will include a nuclear delivery technology (check out this excellent article, including many de-classified CIA docs on the subject -
North Korea and Nuclear Weapons: The Declassified U.S. Record). They've been working on a nuclear capability for the past 25+ years, they are not going to stop now because we, or the UN or anybody else tells them to.
Second thing this guy is going to be doing for the next 15 years is grooming one of his three sons (Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-chul, and Kim Jong-wong) to take his seat of power when the time comes.
Kim Jong-nam is the eldest son by Kim Jong-Il's wife. As the eldest, he would normally be the logical choice due to centuries-old Confucious traditions involving the primacy of the eldest male heir. However, this guy is a total fuck-up. For instance, in 2003 he was caught trying to sneak into Japan on a forged passport in an attempt to go to Disneyland.
Kim Jong Chol and Kim Jong-woong were sons born to Kim Jong-Il by his consort - Ko Young-hee. What is important is that Ko Young-hee was the subject in 2003 of an "idolyzing" campaign which referred to her as an "esteemed mother" and "most loyal". It's all about propaganda, and the propaganda seems to indicate that Kim Jong-Il would prefer to position on of the two sons born of his consort to succeed him. Of the two, Kim jong-chul is the eldest but appears to be unlikely to succeed - his father apparantly once said that he is "no good because he is like a little girl". That leave the youngest son - King Jong-woong. Very little is known about this kid. He's in his early 20's and it has been reported that he "resembled his father in every way, including his physical frame".
What I expect - I expect an "accident" in the next few years resulting in the sudden death of Kim Jong-chul (the 2nd eldest son - the girly man). That leaves the eldest son (Kim Jong-nam) and the youngest (Kim Jong-woong). If Kim Jong-Il lives long enough to groom the youngest (15 years plus), I'd expect an "accident" to eventually befall the eldest as well leaving the youngest as the successor. If his health begins to fail, look for new coming out of North Korea framing Kim Jong-nam in a favorable light.
There are two excellent articles on this subject that I found -
BBC News article on North Korea's secretive 'first family' and
Global Security article on North Korea military succession.
Bottom line is that North Korea represents a real problem. They've made it obvious that they are motivated to put the time and effort into developing a nuclear program. Their leadership is entrenched and unlikely to be put down due to internal factors. It is extremely likely that one of the leader's sons will eventually succeed and carry on, in all probability, the same policies and attitude as his father.
The only question is - at what point does the US and/or UN have to actually take action regarding this? In my mind, it really is a question of do we go now or do we go later...
Moose
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