My bet is a .25 drop in Sept, followed by a .25 in November. I however doubt that those will trickle down to the consumer. Lenders will blame that the added costs to risk has made that drop so insignificant that there is nothing left to trickle down to the consumer. The cost of covering risk has skyrocketed, that will eat up any relief well before the consumer.
I'm no expert on any of this (I just try to figure out...kinda). I've heard the same about 10 yrs to wait till 05 numbers too. I suspect that is due to the "grind down" not being complete. I think we're at the start of a 30 to 40% decline from 05 numbers.
